UK's Economic Growth Outpaces Major G7 Nations Despite Inflation Challenges, Says OECD
9/30/2024, 10:54:04 AM
The OECD has revised the UK's growth forecast for this year to surpass that of Japan, Italy, and Germany, indicating a “turning a corner” in the global economy.
Despite this, the UK remains the second-largest industrialised nation in the G7, with the highest inflation predicted among the group.
Notwithstanding a minor recession, British economic development was deemed “robust,” rising from 0.4% in May to 1.1% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025 growth predictions.
UK's Economic Resurgence:
The UK's ranking in the May forecast has risen from behind all other bloc nations to equal with Canada and France, but still behind the US.
Nonetheless, inflation, which was 2.2% in August, is predicted to reach 2.7% during 2024, posing a challenge for Britons. The UK is expected to have the fastest-rising inflation rate among the G7 by 2025, staying at 2.4%.
The global economy was “turning a corner,” according to the OECD overall. Most major economies would benefit from “ongoing momentum” if there was less inflation and central banks could borrow money for less money.
Additionally, it said that under certain circumstances, the world economy would be able to recover from the shocks brought on by the coronavirus epidemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
OECD chief economist Álvaro Pereira expressed astonishment by the UK's early recovery from last year's recession when the Paris-based organisation concluded a negative economic forecast in May that low consumer spending and slow company investment would hinder its development.
UK Fiscal Policy
While business investment has not grown, consumer spending has expanded more than anticipated due to low inflation and growing earnings.
Pereira stated that the UK has to impose debt ceilings, just like many other European nations. “It should be said that fiscal prudence is necessary, but not by introducing draconian austerity.”
Furthermore, the OECD reported that global trade is recovering faster than expected due to shipping firms' discovery of ways to bypass the Red Sea, but Asian ports are struggling to accommodate longer-routed ships, leading to a 160% increase in container costs.
Food prices remain high, affecting low-income individuals' spending power. Germany, Europe's largest economy, experienced a 16% increase in food prices above average wage growth since 2019, compared to a gap below 4% in Australia.
Domino Effect: More Debt Raises Interest Payments
If interest rates stay high, the OECD fears that governments may try to lower their expenditure deficits by taking on more debt at massive expense.
Pereira stated that as debt increases, so does the need to pay interest expenses, leading to reduced funds for healthcare, education, and other growth-promoting initiatives.
Moreover, a World Economic Forum survey revealed that a majority of senior economists are concerned about rising government debt levels. Over half of respondents fear high public debts could hinder growth, threaten financial stability, or limit government resources for economic crisis preparation.
UK chancellor Rachel Reeves praised OECD findings, stating economic growth is the government's top priority. Next month's budget will focus on repairing foundations for change.
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